To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?
Résumé
Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and
efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to
modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds
new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of
challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and
Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These
were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role
and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on
future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with
thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive
change.
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Kipling et al_2019_adaptation paper EMS published version.pdf (899.9 Ko)
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