This article identifies drivers of forest transition in a province of Northern Vietnam between 1993 and 2000 by applying geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis to remotely sensed and statistical data. The regression model highlighted the spatial variation of the relationship between the percentage of land afforested and its proximate causes. Factors identified as having a major impact on afforestation are: the presence or proximity of a wood-processing industry, the distance to highways, and land allocation to households. Whereas the two former variables are in most areas of the province positively correlated with afforestation, an unexpected negative correlation was observed for the latter. The analysis of these results, supported by an in-depth knowledge of the area and of the political context, leads to the conclusion that, during the time period considered, afforestation was largely driven by state organisations on protected state-owned land, and forestry was not a significant component of household economic activities.