Farm-level autonomous adaptation of european agricultural supply to climate change
Résumé
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a signi cant uncertainty, which re flects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from fi eld to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a fi rst estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations signifi cantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They signifi cantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios.